Ahmed’s Fall, Dangote vs NMDPRA And Nigeria’s Rentier Oil System: How Vested Interests, Regulation Failures And Power Struggles Shape the Refinery Battle

In this opinion piece, Azu Ishiekwene examines the high-stakes confrontation between Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, and former NMDPRA boss Farouk Ahmed, framing it as a deeper clash between private capital and Nigeria’s entrenched rentier oil system. The article traces how Dangote’s $20bn refinery threatens decades-old fuel import rents, regulatory capture, and political patronage embedded in the petroleum sector. While Ahmed’s exit may appear as a victory for reform, Ishiekwene argues it could also represent a strategic reset to preserve elite control. The piece explores oil’s unique political power, regulatory failures under the Petroleum Industry Act, and the resistance faced by disruptors challenging Nigeria’s fuel import dependency and economic rents.
Ahmed’s Fall, Dangote vs NMDPRA And Nigeria’s Rentier Oil System: How Vested Interests, Regulation Failures And Power Struggles Shape the Refinery Battle In this opinion piece, Azu Ishiekwene examines the high-stakes confrontation between Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, and former NMDPRA boss Farouk Ahmed, framing it as a deeper clash between private capital and Nigeria’s entrenched rentier oil system. The article traces how Dangote’s $20bn refinery threatens decades-old fuel import rents, regulatory capture, and political patronage embedded in the petroleum sector. While Ahmed’s exit may appear as a victory for reform, Ishiekwene argues it could also represent a strategic reset to preserve elite control. The piece explores oil’s unique political power, regulatory failures under the Petroleum Industry Act, and the resistance faced by disruptors challenging Nigeria’s fuel import dependency and economic rents.
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